Ahead of the end of the Electoral Commission’s consultation on the referendum question, the proposals of the Secretary of State for Wales have been criticised by a number of commentators in the press and on the internet.

In the Western Mail yesterday, the Chair of the All-Wales Convention Sir Emyr Jones-Parry said the question was ‘misleading’, as it does not adequately reflect the choice on offer.

On its blog today, the Institute of Welsh Affairs says that the question in its current form is ‘tendentious’, and ’suggests that the status quo that would be delivered by a No vote would be “a moderate, middle ground and common sense way to proceed’.

Meanwhile, on his Devolution Matters blog Alan Trench suggests that the question is ambiguous and imprecise.

What do you think of the referendum question? Have your say by adding a comment below.

Following Cheryl Gillan’s announcement yesterday that the referendum on the Assembly’s powers would take place in the first quarter of next year, Cymru Yfory’s David Llywelyn Davies and True Wales’ Rachel Banner appeared on Good Morning Wales today (about 2h 34m in) to discuss issues surrounding the date and more.

The arguments Rachel Banner put forward in favour of a No vote were depressingly familiar, and far-removed from what is actually on the table in the referendum. We heard how the ‘political elites in Cardiff Bay’ are merely grabbing more power for themselves, that this referendum is part of the process of Wales separating from the UK, that a Yes vote would cost more and that the Assembly should instead concentrate on ‘Health, Education and the Economy’. Let’s take these points in turn:

The political elites

If it is the political elites that reside in Cardiff Bay, why is it that according to recent polling carried out by YouGov and the Insitute of Welsh Politics almost two to one of respondents believe that the Assembly should have more influence over governing Wales than Westminster, let alone the fact that the current UK Cabinet does not have a single Member representing a Welsh constituency?

‘The slippery slope to separation’

This referendum is not about independence. A Yes vote would not mean Wales ‘cutting itself off from the rest of the UK’, it would give us simpler, more effective government within a UK framework, and allow us to act swiftly for the benefit of our people and our communities.

Increased costs

As we have pointed out before, evidence published by the All Wales Convention shows that resources that are currently tied up in the inefficient and wasteful LCO process would be better spent on making laws more quickly and more clearly, and in a more joined-up way.

Health, Education and the Economy

Health and Education are fields already devolved to Wales. And yet, under the current flawed system, we have been unable to legislate fully on issues like improving the rights of mental health patients in Wales and providing safer school transport without wasting years in having to ask permission from Whitehall first. As David said this morning, why on earth wouldn’t we want these powers in Wales, especially given that the responsibility is already with the Assembly? In fact, the Assembly can only begin to properly concentrate on doing all it can to improve Health and Education once this mess is sorted out.

Finally, it was clear once again that True Wales has no answer when challenged on what positive benefits would be retained in the event of a No vote. The example of the smoking ban was proof enough of this – for the families of hundreds of people who lost their lives in the two years it took the Assembly to get powers on banning smoking this referendum is not about banal constitutional debate, or mythical political elites.

If, as Len Gibbs of ‘True Wales’ suggests (29 May), the population as a whole has a poor understanding of devolution, then his letter to the Western Mail on the referendum question will not have done much to enlighten it.

There is no hidden agenda here. The referendum cannot, and will not, offer independence or autonomy. It cannot, and will not, provide law-making powers in any area of policy other than those already under the Assembly’s responsibility. Those areas of policy are already fixed and are not up for debate.

The choice before the people of Wales is this: either we stick with a system where the Assembly has to keep asking Westminster’s permission to pass legislation in policy areas already devolved to it OR we change to a system where the Assembly can simply legislate in those same specific fields without wasting tremendous amounts of time, money, patience and good will.

The reason for people’s alleged confusion about devolution is precisely the same reason that the referendum question is so difficult to frame – we need a simpler system, and a yes vote in a referendum will provide it.

Allan Little’s item (click here, 30 minutes in) on Welsh devolution that appeared on last night’s (April 26) BBC Ten O’Clock news was highly misleading and misrepresented the current debates about devolution in Wales.

Mr Little interviewed three people in the Vale of Glamorgan, all hostile to further devolution, including a teacher who referred to her class as being anti-devolution en-masse. This may have been representative of those to whom Mr Little spoke, but does not reflect broader public opinion, and the fact that his interviews were so unrepresentative suggests they were chosen with little care.  One of those interviewed was said to fear that further devolution would mean higher taxes.  However, no-one pointed out that there are no powers for the National Assembly to increase taxes, regardless of the result in the forthcoming referendum on primary law-making powers for the Assembly.

Mr Little also said that ‘many in Wales remain sceptical’ about further devolution. However, opinion polls consistently show strong support for enhanced forms of Welsh devolution (and declining support for both independence and abolition of the Assembly). This year, the BBC’s own St David’s Day poll showed that well over half (56%) the people surveyed were in favour of primary lawmaking powers for the Assembly. This compares with only a third (35%) who were against further devolution. Mr Little appears to have been unaware of work done by the Corporation on this very issue. 

South Wales was portrayed as being removed from ‘Welsh-speaking Wales to the north’, which is more supportive of Plaid Cymru and of ‘more autonomy for Wales’. South Wales, on the other hand, is said to be much more integrated into ‘Britain-wide’ political concerns’.  This is a grave over-simplification, and to the extent it was ever true is badly out of date.  Even in the 1997 referendum such parts of , South Wales as Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Methyr Tydfil, Neath Port Talbot, Rhondda Cynon Taff and Swansea voted Yes, while such parts of the north as Wrexham, Flintshire, Denbighshire and Conwy voted No.

In any event, the suggestion that Plaid Cymru is the only party in favour of further devolution is erroneous.  All parties support the idea of a referendum, and in February this year the National Assembly voted unanimously in favour of holding a referendum on primary lawmaking powers for the Assembly.  All four parties in the Assembly – Labour, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives, as well as Plaid – supported the motion.  Labour and the Liberal Democrats are committed to campaigning for a ‘yes’ vote in that, as will many individual Conservatives (the party as a whole is committed to a ‘free vote’) .  As the opinion polling clearly shows, support for devolution in Wales is strong. 

On the language issue, the Welsh Language Board states that numbers of Welsh speakers are increasing throughout Wales, and the demand for Welsh medium education in Cardiff and other parts of south Wales shows that it is disingenuous to suggest that ‘Welsh-speaking Wales’ is confined to the north of the country.

Mention is made at the end of the piece of ‘many (in Wales) who want far-reaching change’. However, no representative of such advocates (including Tomorrow’s Wales) is given a chance to express their view, nor is that view articulated by the broadcaster.

It is disappointing that such an item was broadcast in view of the conclusions of the King report, and with political sensitivity currently heightened in Wales given the upcoming general election and the prospect of a referendum on the Assembly’s powers on the horizon. It reflected a badly dated and clichéd view of Wales and its constitutional politics, of the sort that might be expected from a correspondent ‘parachuting in’ with preconceptions which his inquiries did little to challenge.  As a result, this report and did a serious disservice not just to Wales, but also to the many staff of BBC Wales who have sought to report Wales’s developing politics fairly and accurately. 

These are important times in Wales.   Not only is there a UK general election underway, but a referendum campaign may well take place this autumn.  We hope that the BBC’s coverage will reflect these factors from now on, and become more balanced and in tune with Wales as it now is.

Interesting reading in The Guardian’s editorial piece on 2 March – not only for the results of the annual BBC/ICM St David’s Day Poll, but also for the Guardian’s take on those results.

The well-publicised headline results are that 56% of those polled would vote for an Assembly with full legislative powers in a referendum, with 35% intending to vote against – a staggering 14% increase in the gap between the nos and the yeses over just 2 years.

The Guardian’s take on the results is that people all over Britain, in their own way, are expressing a desire for greater devolved power – with the implication that Westminster power is tainted power, devolved power is good power.

The editorial also points out that the increase in support for devolution in Wales coincides with a decrease in support for independence – neatly giving the lie to the “slippery slope to independence” line of argument. “Greater self-rule within the wider union” is the Guardian’s diagnosis of the Welsh mood.

Two articles in two days about Wales in the London Guardian, one editorial and one by Michael White! What on earth’s going on?

The answer: they’ve heard the news that Welsh  public opinion is now swinging strongly in favour of proper law-making powers for the National Assembly. According to the editorial the swing from opposition to support for devolved government in Wales since 1979, little more than a generation, is ‘pretty spectacular’, and is excellent news. Michael White sees it as a sign that the ‘Miserabilist tendency in the national character is on the wane’. ‘Most Welsh voters think the legislation passed by the assembly in the form of LCOs, a kind of permission slip granted by the 2006 Wales Act, are too slow and clunky. They’re right.’

Thanks for the support, Guardian. But there’s a more important lesson to be learnt from the two-articles-in-two-days story, which is that the way to get London to take Wales seriously is for us to show we’re willing to take real responsibility for steering our own course. Which is exactly what granting primary law-making powers across a wide range of policy areas means.

The results of a BBC Wales/ICM opinion poll, published this morning, show increased public support for a Senedd with primary lawmaking powers.

When asked how they would vote in a referendum on whether the National Assembly for Wales should be given primary lawmaking powers, a total of 56% of those questioned said they would vote Yes, with 35% saying they would vote No.

BBC Wales Political Editor Betsan Powys said:  

‘The gap between those who say they would vote yes and no in equivalent BBC/ICM polls over the past three years has grown from 7% in 2008, to 13% last year and this year reaches 21% - a significant margin in favour of a yes vote.’

The result builds upon public support shown in polling by both the All Wales Convention and YouGov, and is the latest evidence of an upward trend in favour of having an Assembly with the right tools to do the job.

Cymru Yfory Executive member Alan Trench, speaking to the Western Mail, said:

‘It’s very encouraging and confirms our view that the public realise how unworkable the current devolution settlement is’.

For more on the poll results, see Betsan Powys’ blog and WalesHome.

ICM research conducted a total of 1,000 interviews with adults in Wales aged over 18 by telephone between February 19 and February 23. Interviews were conducted across Wales and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults in Wales.

The results of YouGov’s first ever Welsh poll, released this morning, show a strong level of support for further devolution of powers to Wales. When asked whether Wales should have the same powers as the Scottish Parliament, 63% of respondents were in favour, with only 28% being opposed. This is a move which has been advocated by Cymru Yfory, and one which is vindicated by the results of this morning’s poll.

63% of respondents are in support of a referendum on primary lawmaking powers, with 42% saying they would vote yes in such a referendum if it were held tomorrow.

When quizzed on their constitutional preferences, 14% per cent supported Welsh independence, 34 % supported a Welsh Parliament with full lawmaking powers and tax varying powers, 24% wished to preserve the status quo while only 17% supported abolishing the Assembly.

It is the view of Cymru Yfory that these figures show clear support for further devolution, and that this support is increasing over time. Consistent polling evidence shows a strong, steady increase in support for devolution since 1997 with a proper law-making parliament now the most popular option.

*All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc.  Total sample size was 1,078 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 21st - 23rd October 2009.  The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).

Inevitably perhaps, the BBC and Western Mail’s coverage of the social research published by the All Wales Convention today has focused on the headline figure of 48% who say they would vote Yes in a referendum on giving the Assembly primary law-making powers. This of course is in line with the results of a BBC poll conducted a month ago, though the Convention’s research was actually carried out earlier than that - in November / December 2008. 

Unfortunately, little attention has been given to the survey’s other findings, some of which are truly startling in the levels of ignorance of the issue they reveal amongst the public. It is these findings, the most significant of which are outlined below, that really show how steep a hill the Convention has to climb if it is to fulfil its mission of educating the Welsh public about the devolution debate. They also highlight the kind of misinformation that those who favour law-making powers will have to counter if a referendum is to be won, as well as some of the opportunities.

Here are some of the main findings of The All Wales Convention Social Research First Phase, with Cymru Yfory comments in italics.

• * Only 26% of respondents had seen, heard or read something about possible changes to the powers of the Assembly;
  This means that three quarters of the Welsh population have no idea that there is a debate going on that will have a profound effect on the way they are governed and on which they will soon be asked to vote. Clearly, this has to change!
  
• * 48% of respondents incorrectly thought that ‘full law-making powers’ meant that the Assembly would have law-making powers in all areas of Welsh life;
  Cymru Yfory has never used the term ‘full law-making powers’ as we belive it gives a misleading impression of what is on offer, and this research shows that to be the case. The Assembly will have primary law-making powers over twenty policy fields, not ‘full law-making powers’. The All Wales Convention and politicians alike should be careful of the terminology they use so as to avoid confusion.
  
• * In general, once informed on the details of the debate, there was a sense of cautious optimism in the group discussions;
  Ignorance of the issue is the greatest barrier to support for greater powers. Overcoming this hurdle is crucial, and in many cases, sufficient.
  
• * 35% of people know that the Assembly can’t change the basic rate of income tax;
  This may be indicative not only of a lack of information about what powers the Assembly currently has, but that in some cases that the assumption is that it has more powers than it does in reality. Many people then do not realise the tight limitations on what the Assembly can currently do and this needs to be better explained.
  
• * 88% know nothing at all or little about the possible changes to the powers of the Assembly;
  It is difficult to know what can be added to this bare statistic. Clearly, a proper debate and an informed choice is impossible when nine out of every ten know next to nothing about the issue in hand and its relevance to them. The Convention and politicians need to up their game in explaining the issue to people.
  
• * 26% thought it definitely or probably true that ‘full law-making powers’ would mean Wales being independent from the UK. A further 22% responded ‘don’t know’ to this question;
  Apart from highlighting again the danger of using the inappropriate term ‘full law-making powers’, it is very concerning that those who wish to confuse the issue by giving the impression that the referendum is about independence are pushing at such an open door. Their dangerous and irresponsible misinformation must be countered. Independence is not on the table. On the positive side, since 94% of people oppose independence we must assume that the vast majority of these 26% would therefore have told the pollsters that they would vote ‘No’ in a referendum, when in fact they might well vote Yes if they knew what it was really about. These 26% then comprise a huge pool of potential Yes voters here if only they could be informed of the real choice facing them. 
  
• * There is a srong correlation between believing Wales should remain part of the UK with its own elected Assembly with limited law-making powers (i.e. a preference for the current settlement) and being undecided about how to vote in a referendum;
  This is interesting. A significant proportion of those who expressed a preference for the current settlement also said they were undecided when it came to how to vote in a referendum. Again then, there is a sizable group of ’swing voters’ here who could well support primary law-making powers once the issue is prpoerly explaind to them. Of course, there is probably a significant overlap between this group and those who currently believe the question to be about independence.

The full report can be read here. A second phase of social research will be conducted over the coming months with results to be published by the autumn. Hopefully by then, the Convention will have had some effect on the public’s level of knowledge of the choice facing them.

Good news for those who want to see Wales moving forward. An opinion poll published by the BBC shows that for the first time a majority of Welsh people want to see the Assembly gain primary law-making powers. The poll shows 52% in favour of giving the Assembly the power to make its own legislation, with only 39% against. While the gap may still not be big enough to make a Yes vote inevitable, it is certainly significant that the gap is continuing to grow.

The poll was one item discussed in a Dragon’s Eye special on law-making powers last night, with Cymru Yfory’s Sharon Morgan a studio guest. On Saturday, Sharon visited Monmouth market to talk to people in this traditionally anti-devolution town about further law-making powers. While only a one minute clip was shown on the programme, during the hour and a half Sharon spent talking to people in the town she found that a majority were supportive of further powers, espeically after the issues were explained to them. That significant levels of support exist even in places like Monmouth is certainly heartening, and confirms the national trend shown by teh BBC poll.