On his Devolution Matters blog, Cymru Yfory constitutional adviser Alan Trench has argued that a ‘yes’ vote in a referendum on primary law making powers for the National Assembly would benefit those concerned with the UK level of government as well as those concerned with the current situation in Wales.
Alan Trench argues that while the present system, deeply flawed as it is, can be made to work by a Labour-led Governments in Cardiff Bay and Westminster, the logic of the situation is quite different if the Conservatives are in office in London. Devolution means that politically it would be difficult for the Conservatives to impose their will on Wales in the way that John Redwood for example sought to do, and any attempt to try would forfeit democratic legitimacy in a way that would be especially damaging now that Wales is a happy hunting ground for Tory seats for both Westminster and Cardiff Bay. Equally, political preferences of Welsh voters are different on the whole to those in England, where there is less of a desire for social-democratic policies and solutions than in Wales. On an institutional level, discussions around LCOs (where the Welsh Government, an Assembly Committee or a backbench AM asks Parliament for legislative powers in a specific field and which have been contentious enough as it is) would become even more problematic, and publicly so, if problems encountered were to be magnified by party-political differences. It’s hard to see how anyone would gain, and the only certainty is that these issues would further damage the standing of politicians and politics in general.
Giving Wales primary law-making powers in 20 distinct fields by implementing Part 4 of the Government of Wales Act fields would mitigate against this by decoupling policy in England and Wales and creating a degree of political insulation for a Conservative UK Government. It lets Wales be social-democratic, and protects central government from embarassment as Welsh choices are both clearly Welsh and democratic. In such circumstances, a Conservative UK Government can show how tolerant of pluralism and diversity it is. Labour would benefit as well, as the chance to shape a distinctly Welsh policy agenda offers a way to protect a particular sort of social democracy that its Welsh voters clearly prize – and think they have already.
Part 4 does not offer ‘Scottish-type’ powers, Trench concludes, but it’s closer to them. It reduces the need for constant liaison with Whitehall, and so the danger of Whitehall misunderstanding how Wales and Welsh devolution work. It means that the UK moves closer to having a single template for devolved government, which is adjusted to reflect particular circumstances in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. That will make devolved government easier not just for the general public to understand, but also politicians and civil servants.