Inevitably perhaps, the BBC and Western Mail’s coverage of the social research published by the All Wales Convention today has focused on the headline figure of 48% who say they would vote Yes in a referendum on giving the Assembly primary law-making powers. This of course is in line with the results of a BBC poll conducted a month ago, though the Convention’s research was actually carried out earlier than that - in November / December 2008. 

Unfortunately, little attention has been given to the survey’s other findings, some of which are truly startling in the levels of ignorance of the issue they reveal amongst the public. It is these findings, the most significant of which are outlined below, that really show how steep a hill the Convention has to climb if it is to fulfil its mission of educating the Welsh public about the devolution debate. They also highlight the kind of misinformation that those who favour law-making powers will have to counter if a referendum is to be won, as well as some of the opportunities.

Here are some of the main findings of The All Wales Convention Social Research First Phase, with Cymru Yfory comments in italics.

• * Only 26% of respondents had seen, heard or read something about possible changes to the powers of the Assembly;
  This means that three quarters of the Welsh population have no idea that there is a debate going on that will have a profound effect on the way they are governed and on which they will soon be asked to vote. Clearly, this has to change!
  
• * 48% of respondents incorrectly thought that ‘full law-making powers’ meant that the Assembly would have law-making powers in all areas of Welsh life;
  Cymru Yfory has never used the term ‘full law-making powers’ as we belive it gives a misleading impression of what is on offer, and this research shows that to be the case. The Assembly will have primary law-making powers over twenty policy fields, not ‘full law-making powers’. The All Wales Convention and politicians alike should be careful of the terminology they use so as to avoid confusion.
  
• * In general, once informed on the details of the debate, there was a sense of cautious optimism in the group discussions;
  Ignorance of the issue is the greatest barrier to support for greater powers. Overcoming this hurdle is crucial, and in many cases, sufficient.
  
• * 35% of people know that the Assembly can’t change the basic rate of income tax;
  This may be indicative not only of a lack of information about what powers the Assembly currently has, but that in some cases that the assumption is that it has more powers than it does in reality. Many people then do not realise the tight limitations on what the Assembly can currently do and this needs to be better explained.
  
• * 88% know nothing at all or little about the possible changes to the powers of the Assembly;
  It is difficult to know what can be added to this bare statistic. Clearly, a proper debate and an informed choice is impossible when nine out of every ten know next to nothing about the issue in hand and its relevance to them. The Convention and politicians need to up their game in explaining the issue to people.
  
• * 26% thought it definitely or probably true that ‘full law-making powers’ would mean Wales being independent from the UK. A further 22% responded ‘don’t know’ to this question;
  Apart from highlighting again the danger of using the inappropriate term ‘full law-making powers’, it is very concerning that those who wish to confuse the issue by giving the impression that the referendum is about independence are pushing at such an open door. Their dangerous and irresponsible misinformation must be countered. Independence is not on the table. On the positive side, since 94% of people oppose independence we must assume that the vast majority of these 26% would therefore have told the pollsters that they would vote ‘No’ in a referendum, when in fact they might well vote Yes if they knew what it was really about. These 26% then comprise a huge pool of potential Yes voters here if only they could be informed of the real choice facing them. 
  
• * There is a srong correlation between believing Wales should remain part of the UK with its own elected Assembly with limited law-making powers (i.e. a preference for the current settlement) and being undecided about how to vote in a referendum;
  This is interesting. A significant proportion of those who expressed a preference for the current settlement also said they were undecided when it came to how to vote in a referendum. Again then, there is a sizable group of ’swing voters’ here who could well support primary law-making powers once the issue is prpoerly explaind to them. Of course, there is probably a significant overlap between this group and those who currently believe the question to be about independence.

The full report can be read here. A second phase of social research will be conducted over the coming months with results to be published by the autumn. Hopefully by then, the Convention will have had some effect on the public’s level of knowledge of the choice facing them.

Good news for those who want to see Wales moving forward. An opinion poll published by the BBC shows that for the first time a majority of Welsh people want to see the Assembly gain primary law-making powers. The poll shows 52% in favour of giving the Assembly the power to make its own legislation, with only 39% against. While the gap may still not be big enough to make a Yes vote inevitable, it is certainly significant that the gap is continuing to grow.

The poll was one item discussed in a Dragon’s Eye special on law-making powers last night, with Cymru Yfory’s Sharon Morgan a studio guest. On Saturday, Sharon visited Monmouth market to talk to people in this traditionally anti-devolution town about further law-making powers. While only a one minute clip was shown on the programme, during the hour and a half Sharon spent talking to people in the town she found that a majority were supportive of further powers, espeically after the issues were explained to them. That significant levels of support exist even in places like Monmouth is certainly heartening, and confirms the national trend shown by teh BBC poll.

And so, Obama has been elected President of the United States. But does the success of his campaign hold any lessons for us here in Wales? In particular, can we learn from the success of his movement for change as we seek our own change to a law-making Parliament for Wales?

The idea that the young have become disinterested in politics is one that has become increasingly accepted as truth over recent years. However, Obama’s success in persuading young people to go out and vote shows that the young are interested in politics if they are inspired, and that their mobilisation can be key in securing change.

One of the findings of the recent research conducted by the Institute of Welsh Politics on behalf of the National Assembly for Wales was that young people are much more pre-devolution that the older generation. The results for the constitutional preference question, when broken down into age groups were as follows:

The difference in attitudes between the age groups is marked. While the research showed an average of 48.8% of the population being in favour of giving the Assembly more powers (i.e. chosing either a Parliament or Independence as their most favoured option), the percentage of 18-24 year olds who want more devolution is an astounding 67%. Clearly, the cause of the capaign for a Yes vote in a referendum would be well served if the young could be motivated to turn out and vote for change.

It would appear to us that it should be a core task of the All Wales Convention to engage with young people in Wales and explain to them how a law-making Parliament for Wales would affect their lives, and to draw them into the political debate and electoral process. Combined with effective targeting of this group of voters by the Yes campaign, there would be every reason to be confident of a positive outcome to a referendum.

The results of the survey of public attitudes towards devolution published today confirm the trend of recent years of a collapse in support for a return to direct rule from Whitehall and the consolidation of support for a proper Welsh Parliament.

The survey, commissioned by the National Assembly for Wales and conducted by the Institute of Welsh Politics and GfKNOB, shows that 39% of voters want to see a Welsh parliament will full law-making and taxation powers, making it the most popular of all constitutional options. 31% want to retain the current settlement, 15% want a return to no devolution at all, while 10% want independence.

While pessimists will point to the fact that just less than half support an option that provides for more powers than we currently have, it is significant that the 39% who expressed a preference for a proper Parliament actually supported a move which goes further than that being currently proposed by the One Wales government, which will leave Wales some way short of full law-making powers and with still no powers at all over taxation.

It is also heartening, from a pro-devolution point of view, that support for further devolution is so high at a time when no-one has been publicly putting forward the arguments for such a move, with the government parties preferring instead to wait until the All-Wales Convention has concluded its work before starting to campaign on the issue.

We believe that once the arguments for further powers are put before the public, and the unsustainability of the current settlement becomes clear, that we will see a further shift in public attitudes in favour of further devolution. Lets hope our politicians start making those arguments soon.

Both the BBC and the Western Mail report the reults of a survey of Assembly Members which found that 90% of them think the Assmebly is ready for more powers.

While it is no surprise that this standpoint is common to all Plaid Cymru and Liberal Democrat AMs, is is a clear sign of how the political climate in Wales has changed over the past decade that two thirds of Conservative AMs share this view. This of course is indicative of a more general shift among the general public in favour of greater powers, as evidenced in recent research carried out by the Institute of Welsh Politics.

With the All-Wales Convention meeting for the first time next week, and a referendum promised by 2011, Tomorrow’s Wales hopes very much that those AMs who support further powers will be proactive in taking the argument for a Yes vote to their constituents over the coming period.