In a guest blog for Cymru Yfory, Political Commentator Lee Waters looks at the challenges facing the Yes campaign in the forthcoming referendum on the Assembly’s powers.

Though they present themselves as political innocents the No campaigners are sophisticated political operators.  And though opinion polls consistently show that they are out of touch with Welsh public opinion, once the date is named for a referendum they’ll be given an equal platform by the broadcasters.

So how should progressives deal with their backward looking pessimism?

1          It’s about the future

As flawed as the law making system is the referendum is not going to be about mechanics.  There are bags of evidence that the LCO system is not working but it is of little interest to most voters. There is little profit in getting drawn into opaque arguments about the Government of Wales Act.  The Yes campaign needs to focus on the future.

The No campaigners will dust off the Leo Abse playbook and conjure up the bogeymen of the past – the elites, the language fanatics, the constitutional obsessives who care little about bread and butter issues in their quest for an independent Wales.  But the Yes campaign must not be distracted by the dog whistle tactics of the 1970s.  We must frame the debate to be about the future and not the past.

Over the last decade the Assembly has gradually grown in stature and confidence.  A Yes vote will help take Wales forward, giving Wales a stronger voice.  It will give those we elect the tools to protect our communities from Whitehall indifference.

2          Hope not despair

We face tough times in the coming years and the Yes campaign must set out an optimistic vision for the future and contrast it with the backward looking message of the No campaign.

The choice is between a more confident Wales where young people don’t need to leave their communities in search of jobs and challenges, or a dependency culture where we look to others for solutions to our problems.

What is the vision of the future offered by the No campaigners?

3          The consequences of voting No

The majority of voters want to see devolution succeed, but the No campaigners want to hobble our Assembly.

They present a No vote in the referendum as a risk-free venture.  Defeat the elites, says Oxford-educated Rachel Banner, and let Assembly Members carry on as they are.  But staying as we are is not an option.  If Wales votes no to the proposals for modest reform, the Assembly’s ability to stand up for Wales will begin to unravel.

We already know that London officials need little excuse to sideline Welsh affairs. If there is a no vote the slow and complicated system of law-making will get even worse. The holes in the devolution settlement will be systematically exploited as Whitehall mandarins feel they have a green light to frustrate the Assembly’s requests. 

So the status quo is not an option. Forward or back, that’s the option. And let’s not pretend otherwise.

Cymru Yfory / Tomorrow’s Wales welcomes this evening’s joint statement from Rhodri Morgan and Ieuan Wyn Jones, which affirms that “all options for the timing of a referendum remain open”, and that “nothing has been ruled in or ruled out, including, if it proved practical, a referendum in the autumn”.

As the political parties reach a decision, Cymru Yfory / Tomorrow’s Wales will be redoubling its efforts during the coming months to prepare the ground for a referendum and a successful Yes campaign.

“The National Assembly and its Government should now commit itself to making the recommendations of the All Wales Convention a reality following the publication of the Jones-Parry report today” says Tomorrow’s Wales.

Tomorrow’s Wales chair Barry Morgan, Archbishop of Wales said: “Following exhaustive study and consultation, the All Wales Convention has found that the case for making the National Assembly into a proper parliament by granting it primary law-making powers is overwhelming. The example of the Scottish parliament since 1997 has shown the enormous advantage of a having a clear set of powers with the responsibilities at the Westminster and Scottish levels precisely defined. Granting primary law-making powers to the Assembly would strengthen Welsh democracy and give us a stable and effective system of government. We could then get on with addressing the needs of the people and communities of Wales by developing practical and  distinctively Welsh policies and deliver them effectively, free from the constraints of a complex and frustrating process of transferring powers”.

The Convention’s findings that public opinion in Wales has moved steadily towards support for law-making powers confirms what Tomorrow’s Wales has found in its work throughout Wales.

Welsh rugby legend and British Lions team manager Gerald Davies said, “It is vital for the people of Wales to grasp this opportunity to establish a clear system of governance that serves Wales effectively.”

Gerald Davies is a member of Tomorrow’s Wales’ executive committee and a signatory of its Declaration for Welsh Democracy which calls for primary law-making powers for the National Assembly. Those who have supported the Declaration include Chair of Tomorrow’s Wales, the Archbishop of Wales, Barry Morgan and the Secretary General of the Muslim Council for Wales Saleem Kidwai; Wales and British Lions international Jamie Roberts and Olympic swimmer David Davies; two of Wales’s National Poets, Gillian Clarke and Gwyneth Lewis, and actor Mathew Rhys. Musicians Gruff Rhys and Rhydian Roberts, as well as DJ Huw Stephens have also signed up.

Archbishop Barry Morgan added, “Following the Convention report, Tomorrow’s Wales will be expanding our activities to promote popular understanding of the devolution process and supporting the campaign for proper law-making powers for the National Assembly. This report gives Wales the evidence and thus the confidence to make that a reality.”  

On his Devolution Matters blog, Cymru Yfory constitutional adviser Alan Trench has argued that a ‘yes’ vote in a referendum on primary law making powers for the National Assembly would benefit those concerned with the UK level of government as well as those concerned with the current situation in Wales.

Alan Trench argues that while the present system, deeply flawed as it is, can be made to work by a Labour-led Governments in Cardiff Bay and Westminster, the logic of the situation is quite different if the Conservatives are in office in London. Devolution means that politically it would be difficult for the Conservatives to impose their will on Wales in the way that John Redwood for example sought to do, and any attempt to try would forfeit democratic legitimacy in a way that would be especially damaging now that Wales is a happy hunting ground for Tory seats for both Westminster and Cardiff Bay. Equally, political preferences of Welsh voters are different on the whole to those in England, where there is less of a desire for social-democratic policies and solutions than in Wales. On an institutional level, discussions around LCOs (where the Welsh Government, an Assembly Committee or a backbench AM asks Parliament for legislative powers in a specific field and which have been contentious enough as it is) would become even more problematic, and publicly so, if problems encountered were to be magnified by party-political differences. It’s hard to see how anyone would gain, and the only certainty is that these issues would further damage the standing of politicians and politics in general.

Giving Wales primary law-making powers in 20 distinct fields by implementing Part 4 of the Government of Wales Act fields would mitigate against this by decoupling policy in England and Wales and creating a degree of political insulation for a Conservative UK Government. It lets Wales be social-democratic, and protects central government from embarassment as Welsh choices are both clearly Welsh  and democratic. In such circumstances, a Conservative UK Government can show how tolerant of pluralism and diversity it is. Labour would benefit as well, as the chance to shape a distinctly Welsh policy agenda offers a way to protect a particular sort of social democracy that its Welsh voters clearly prize – and think they have already.

Part 4 does not offer ‘Scottish-type’ powers, Trench concludes, but it’s closer to them.  It reduces the need for constant liaison with Whitehall, and so the danger of Whitehall misunderstanding how Wales and Welsh devolution work.  It means that the UK moves closer to having a single template for devolved government, which is adjusted to reflect particular circumstances in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.  That will make devolved government easier not just for the general public to understand, but also politicians and civil servants.

The results of YouGov’s first ever Welsh poll, released this morning, show a strong level of support for further devolution of powers to Wales. When asked whether Wales should have the same powers as the Scottish Parliament, 63% of respondents were in favour, with only 28% being opposed. This is a move which has been advocated by Cymru Yfory, and one which is vindicated by the results of this morning’s poll.

63% of respondents are in support of a referendum on primary lawmaking powers, with 42% saying they would vote yes in such a referendum if it were held tomorrow.

When quizzed on their constitutional preferences, 14% per cent supported Welsh independence, 34 % supported a Welsh Parliament with full lawmaking powers and tax varying powers, 24% wished to preserve the status quo while only 17% supported abolishing the Assembly.

It is the view of Cymru Yfory that these figures show clear support for further devolution, and that this support is increasing over time. Consistent polling evidence shows a strong, steady increase in support for devolution since 1997 with a proper law-making parliament now the most popular option.

*All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc.  Total sample size was 1,078 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 21st - 23rd October 2009.  The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).

Good news for those who want to see Wales moving forward. An opinion poll published by the BBC shows that for the first time a majority of Welsh people want to see the Assembly gain primary law-making powers. The poll shows 52% in favour of giving the Assembly the power to make its own legislation, with only 39% against. While the gap may still not be big enough to make a Yes vote inevitable, it is certainly significant that the gap is continuing to grow.

The poll was one item discussed in a Dragon’s Eye special on law-making powers last night, with Cymru Yfory’s Sharon Morgan a studio guest. On Saturday, Sharon visited Monmouth market to talk to people in this traditionally anti-devolution town about further law-making powers. While only a one minute clip was shown on the programme, during the hour and a half Sharon spent talking to people in the town she found that a majority were supportive of further powers, espeically after the issues were explained to them. That significant levels of support exist even in places like Monmouth is certainly heartening, and confirms the national trend shown by teh BBC poll.

In a Western Mail article by Martin Shipton exploring the question of whether there is a danger that a referendum on further devolution could be postponed until after 2011, Tomorrow’s Wales member Cynog Dafis articulated clearly that the main thing pro-devolutionists have to fear is fear itself. If only those in favour of further powers were more prepared to make the case for change, and to explain how the current arrangements are unsustainable, then there is every chance of winnaing a referendum - whatever the economic situation. He says:

All of those who support moving on from the current position to one where the Assembly has primary lawmaking powers should be exuding confidence. It is very important that we talk up the virtues of the Assembly acquiring such powers. There is no justification at all for a pessimistic view of the outcome of a referendum. As long as the current settlement is properly explained to people – and that is partly the responsibility of the All Wales Convention – we have every reason to be optimistic….

One argument that some are putting around is that the current economic crisis means that the issue of how Wales is governed is not important enough to be considered. I would take issue with that. The economic crisis and the governance of Wales are two quite separate matters. I don’t see how the fact that there is an economic crisis makes it any less urgent that we should seek to improve the way Wales is governed – indeed, it seems to me that it makes it more important to do so.

Former Secretary of State Peter Hain’s intervention in the debate on whether a referendum on further powers should be held before 2011 has attracted much comment in the blogosphere, including here and here.

His contribution is extraordinary on many counts, especially so his assertion that “without a significant shift in public opinion, it is very clear to me that a referendum before or in 2011 would be lost”. This is a strange conclusion to come to given that successive opinion polls and academic research have shown that a majority in favour of turning the Assembly into a proper law-making Parliament has existed since as far back as the turn of the century.

Mr Hain doesn’t believe a referendum should be held until the middle of the next decade, despite the fact that new evidence of how the Assembly’s currently limited and uneven powers preclude it from legislating in the best interests of our country comes to light all the time.

The most recent example came only last week when the Assembly passed the Learner Travel Wales Measure. While the Measure makes many important changes to the arrangements for the provision of school transport, the fact that it was unable to carry out the wishes of campaigners – supported by AMs of all four parties – to make seatbelts compulsory and ban the use of double-decker buses was a direct result of the limited system of devolution we currently have.

Such problems would not arise if primary law-making powers were devolved to the Assembly following a successful referendum, and it is difficult to see how anyone can come to a reasoned conclusion that the current settlement is the preferable one.

Peter Hain’s comments were made in a latter of evidence he has sent to the All-Wales Convention. Cymru Yfory will soon be sending our own evidence to Convention outlining why we think a move to primary law-making powers is both necessary and possible, and we’re sure many other organisations and individuals will be doing the same.